New data from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has revealed a 20% drop in export activity to the Middle East as conflict escalated in March.
The findings are based on the number of certificates of origin issued by Chambers of Commerce. These are a key customs document required, including for Arab League countries, for exporting UK goods. They are issued at the start of the export journey and as such they are a reliable proxy for trade flows.
Certificates down in the last year
Total UK certificates of origin issued by Chambers to exporters fell by 10% for March 2026 from 39,457 in March 2025 to 35,533 this year. Certificates for Arab markets fell by 20%, from 15,437 in March 2025 to 12,360 in March 2026. Finally, certificates for non‑Arab markets declined by just 4%, from 24,751 in March 2025 to 23,785 in March 2026.
A sharp fall in these certificates indicates goods are either being delayed, rerouted or not shipped at all.
The divergence shows this is not a general slowdown in demand. Instead it is a region‑specific shock consistent with the escalation of conflict and disruption across key trade corridors.
Companies classified as Arab League countries for certificates of origin include Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
UK trade flows largely disrupted
Steven Lynch, Director of International Trade at the British Chambers of Commerce, commented, “For months, businesses have been telling us that the world is getting harder to trade in, and the data is now catching up with that reality. Routes are less reliable, costs are rising, and geopolitical risk is something firms are having to manage day‑to‑day.
“Our documentation data shows a clear and immediate shock to UK trade flows linked directly to disruption across the Middle East. The fact that exports tied to Arab markets are falling far faster than elsewhere tells us this is a targeted, region‑specific impact, not a broad‑based downturn.
“Firms are reporting increased delays, rerouting via longer and more expensive pathways, enduring rising insurance premiums and facing stretched lead times. For SMEs in particular, this squeezes cashflow and confidence at a time when exporting is already challenging.
“There are early signs some trade may be delayed rather than permanently lost, but the operating environment has fundamentally changed. Trade must be treated as national infrastructure, exposed directly to geopolitical events, and resilience is now essential, not optional.”
The BCC has set up a Diplomatic Advisory Hub. This is in partnership with the Foreign Office to provide UK firms with the latest intel and advice on overseas trade. Thousands of businesses have attended its webinars on the Middle East conflict to support their operations.
