Amid ongoing trade disruption and tariff uncertainty, energy has emerged as the leading cost pressure facing global firms, according to HSBC’s Global Trade Pulse Survey 2026. The survey captures the views of 10,000 senior business leaders across 26 markets on trade, tariffs, supply chains and technology.
Energy costs topped the list of factors affecting business expenses over the past six months, followed by tariffs and freight. The survey suggests these pressures will continue. 68% of business leaders say they have already experienced higher overall costs. 72% expect costs to rise further over the next two years. 59% report higher working capital requirements since 2025. In addition to increased expenditure, uncertainty is also weighing on revenues. 92% of respondents expect supply chain delays or disruption to impact their revenues over the next two years.
Businesses are taking practical steps to protect margins and stay competitive. Improving efficiency and productivity is the most common response to rising costs, cited by 53% of business leaders. This is followed by renegotiating supplier arrangements, absorbing costs into profit margins and passing costs on to customers.
Businesses are confident and strengthening resilience
Despite continued uncertainty, 86% of businesses leaders say they remain confident in their ability to grow international trade over the next two years. The vast majority of firms have or are planning to take action to stay agile and strengthen resilience in response to trade uncertainty and disruption. This includes broadening supplier bases across regions, securing energy supplies, optimising trade routes, and building more self-contained supply chains within key regions or increasing inventories.
These measures are already delivering results. 78% of respondents report that their supply-chain changes have improved working capital and cash flow.
Businesses are also shifting towards more flexible and digitally enabled operating models. 81% of respondents say they have shifted towards services or digital business models. Meanwhile, 86% have expanded or plan to expand their online sales channels to reach new markets. Nearly half of respondents regard shifts towards services or digital business models as the most effective response to trade and tariff uncertainty.
Vivek Ramachandran, Head of Global Trade Solutions, HSBC, said, “Energy costs have become a defining consideration for businesses managing international supply chains. Companies are responding by securing energy supply, improving efficiency and building greater flexibility into their operating models.
“These actions reflect a broader shift in how businesses think about resilience. Rather than simply reacting to individual cost pressures, they are redesigning supply chains, trade routes and sources of supply to manage uncertainty over the longer term. The businesses best positioned for growth will be those that combine operational flexibility with disciplined management of liquidity, working capital and risk.”
AI is being adopted at scale in trade
Companies expect AI infrastructure investments to contribute to new sources of demand. According to the survey, 70% of respondents anticipate that AI investments in infrastructure and supporting power infrastructure will increase demand for their products and services over the next two years.
AI is already being used across a range of trade-related activities. More than half of business leaders say they have deployed it in customer service and sales support. Meanwhile, 50% use AI for strategy and scenario planning. Business leaders of larger companies, with an annual turnover of $2bn or more, say they are particularly focused on strategic applications. Respondents of larger companies say they use AI for supply-chain monitoring and risk assessment. This is in comparison to 47% of respondents of smaller businesses with an annual turnover of $50m–$500m.
However, the survey indicates that AI adoption may be advancing faster than the governance frameworks needed to support it. Although businesses are deploying AI across a range of trade-related functions, they report uneven levels of testing, accountability and formal oversight. The survey finds that 85% of respondents say they have deployed AI in at least one trade-related function. 76% have implemented no more than five of the 10 AI safeguards identified as important for effective governance. For example, only 36% routinely test AI outputs, while just 30% have appointed a Chief AI Officer or an equivalent role.
Companies diversify international networks to stay ahead
Businesses are broadening their international market relationships to manage cost and supply-chain pressures. Across the 26 markets surveyed, Europe is the destination businesses are most likely to turn to, with 48% doing so. This is up from 40% in HSBC’s previous Trade Pulse Survey. Southeast Asia follows at 44%, up from 36%, while reliance on North Asia has risen from 32% to 38% over the past year.
Reliance on North America is also increasing. 38% of businesses report greater reliance on the region, up from 32% in the previous survey. At the same time, the proportion reducing their exposure to North America has fallen from 22% to 16% over the past 12 months.
The US is driving much of this shift, with 30% of global businesses planning to increase their reliance on the country, up from 25% in last year’s survey. The trend is particularly pronounced in the automotive sector, where 45% of businesses are increasing their reliance on North America. Meanwhile, interest in Europe is especially strong among technology companies, with 53% of respondents planning to increase their reliance on the region.
