A two-week US-Iran ceasefire will not restore container shipping operations through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-conflict conditions, with ocean supply chain disruption and elevated rates expected to continue.
Analysts at Xeneta expect carriers to take a cautious approach to the ceasefire. Alternative routings into the Gulf region, such as landbridges from Khor Fakkan, Sohar and Jeddah, will remain in place while carriers simultaneously carry out individual test voyages via Strait of Hormuz.
Peter Sand, Chief Analyst, Xeneta, said: “The ceasefire should come with a dose of reality because there is unlikely to be a rapid return to normality for container shipping in the Middle East. Strait of Hormuz transits are likely to increase but how this transition is managed is yet to be seen because two weeks is a very short window of opportunity and there is no guarantee the ceasefire will hold.
“The conflict has displaced 250,000 TEU of weekly container shipping capacity and carriers have put a lot of effort and expense into establishing alternative routings to allow goods to flow into the region. You do not suddenly toss that out of the window because there is a two-week ceasefire.”
Ceasefire offers limited relief for container shipping
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz and alternative land routings has caused severe congestion and disruption at ports in the Middle East and neighboring regions.
Destine Ozuygur, Senior Analyst, said: “Weekly capacity to Jeddah and King Abdullah port has increased 19% as carriers introduce new services to connect the landbridge into the Gulf region.
“Even with alternative routings, there is huge schedule disruption at ports like Mundra, Nhava Sheva, and Khor Fakkan. That is not going to go away overnight.
“This ceasefire does not resolve that capacity displacement. It simply creates a brief opportunity to move the most urgent freight.
“The priority will be clearing frustrated cargo that has accumulated at alternative ports — Nhava Sheva in particular — shipping it to Jebel Ali and getting out as quickly as possible.
“Carriers will be aware they risk ships becoming trapped in the Gulf once again if there is a sudden deterioration in the security situation.
Ozuygur also warned control of the Strait of Hormuz will have a long term impact on container shipping in the region.
She said: “There are huge operational question marks over a return to the Strait of Hormuz if it effectively turns into an Iranian tollbooth. How much will it cost? How will transits and payments be managed and will this delay carriers returning services to the region? Could some ships be denied transit even if they are willing to pay? This kind of uncertainty is not good for supply chains.”
Long term uncertainty over Hormuz access
Keeping supply chains moving comes at a cost, with shippers transporting goods from China to Jebel Ali, the Gulf’s largest container port, facing potential average spot rate increases of more than 270% compared to end of February.
Even on the trade from China to US West Coast, which transits the Pacific thousands of miles from the Middle East conflict, spot rates have increased 37%, partly due to congestion in the Middle East spreading to major Asia transshipment hubs such as Singapore, Tanjung Pelepas and Port Klang.
Sand said: “I would expect short-term rates to go a bit higher, simply because there is a two-week window of opportunity and everybody is in a rush.
“Falling oil prices should take some of the heat off fuel costs and put a cap on further emergency bunker surcharges from carriers, but this remains a critical situation and shippers should expect freight rates to remain elevated.”
