According to Kate Lester, Founder and CEO of Diamond Logistics, with heatwaves becoming a regular feature of the British summer, online retailers have a significant opportunity to drive growth. However, she warns that making the most of this opportunity will require careful preparation.
Traditionally, warmer weather has always driven a surge in retail spending, as consumers rush to purchase everything from summer clothing and garden furniture to barbecue supplies, paddling pools and cooling equipment. This year, however, the opportunity could be even greater for online brands.
Alongside prolonged periods of hot weather, England’s progression to the Semi-Final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup created the perfect conditions for increased consumer spending.
The figures are already pointing in that direction. In June, warmer weather contributed to a 6.1% monthly increase in non-store retail sales. This demonstrates just how quickly consumer behaviour can shift when temperatures rise, even during periods of economic uncertainty.
Understanding changing shopping patterns
Kate explained, “Heatwaves can create significant changes in consumer behaviour, but the impact on online retail is not always straightforward.
“Demand often builds ahead of warmer weather as consumers prepare in advance, before shifting during the hottest periods and then recovering once temperatures begin to ease. For retailers, the key is understanding these changing patterns and ensuring their operations are prepared to respond.”
This was apparent last year ahead of the July 2022 heatwave. Consumers brought forward purchases in preparation for the warmer conditions, with retailers reporting significant increases in demand for seasonal products.
Diamond Logistics found that one UK technology retailer sold a record 17,000 electric fans, while Argos saw air conditioning sales rise by more than 2,000%. Asda reported paddling pool sales up 1,000% compared with the previous week. Online revenue also increased by 17.4% year-on-year during the pre-heatwave period as shoppers prepared for the change in weather.
However, during the hottest days themselves, shopping behaviour shifted. Across the two warmest days of the 2022 heatwave, web revenue fell by 30.7% compared with the previous week, as consumers spent more time outdoors and delayed some purchasing decisions.
The same pattern is emerging this summer. Shoppers are preparing in advance of prolonged heat before buying behaviour changes as temperatures peak.
Preparing fulfilment for peak demand
The real challenge for online retailers is turning increased consumer interest into successful sales. That means having the fulfilment infrastructure, capacity and flexibility to manage higher order volumes right through to the final delivery.
As part of this, the CEO of Diamond Logistics says online retailers should be preparing for heatwaves in much the same way they would for Black Friday or Christmas. There should be plans in place to ensure their fulfilment operations can cope when demand starts to build. A key part of that preparation, she says, is using weather forecasts to make more informed decisions ahead of periods of extreme heat.
She said, “Online retailers really need to start viewing weather forecasts as a business planning tool, not just something they check before leaving the house. Knowing what’s coming allows businesses to make informed decisions around stock levels, staffing, product handling and delivery schedules before demand begins to rise.
“A heatwave is ultimately a stress test for online retail operations. It quickly highlights which businesses have prepared for changing conditions and which have not. The real challenge lies in ensuring the entire fulfilment operation has the flexibility to respond when demand increases and operating conditions become more challenging.
“Bringing seasonal stock forward, speaking to delivery partners early and adjusting workforce capacity are all practical steps retailers can take to manage spikes in demand while maintaining service levels and protecting employee welfare. The key is making those decisions before the heat arrives.”
Protecting operations during extreme heat
Kate also notes that periods of extreme heat can also place additional pressure on the very operations needed to support meeting demand.
Kate continued, “Online retailers need to consider the impact of heat across every stage of the fulfilment process. Warehouse productivity can be affected as pick rates slow, additional breaks are required, and shift patterns need to be adjusted around cooler parts of the day. Meanwhile, last-mile teams must continue delivering in line with customer expectations despite more challenging conditions.
“Alongside staff welfare pressures during heatwaves, the products themselves might require additional consideration during prolonged periods of hot weather. For instance, a parcel may leave a relatively cool warehouse before spending several hours in a much warmer setting.
“Thought also needs to be applied to packaging, dispatch schedules and how sensitive items move through the supply chain. All of those considerations will become hugely important in maintaining product quality and customer satisfaction over the summer months.”
